Will Mets make a run?

Thanks to my travels for work, last night was the first game I’ve watched since the previous Friday.  Six whole days without the Mets and shockingly, they won every game.  Perhaps not so shockingly, they lost the first game I see in a week.  Maybe I’m the reason the Mets stink.  I mean if Omar can blame Adam Rubin for anything, then he can surely point a finger at me.

But more importantly, with that little five-game streak the Mets had, they’ve somewhat propelled themselves back into the Wild Card race.  Will they make a miraculous run at this thing?  I doubt it…but let’s look into it.  Shall we?

After last night’s loss and the Giants win, the Mets currently sit 6.5 games behind the Wild Card leader.  Of course the Phillies can’t beat the Giants and help the Mets out.  It felt like the Phillies first loss in a month.  But let me digress.  6.5 games is certainly reachable, although they’d have to leap past six teams to get there.  The seven teams in front of them in order are the: Giants, Rockies, Cardinals, Marlins, Braves, Brewers and Astros.  I’d say only the Cardinals/Cubs division loser and the Marlins are the only legit teams in that group.

Now here’s the interesting part.  Between now and August 21st, the Mets play home series vs. the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Giants and Braves and play away against the Padres and Diamondbacks.  That’s 20 games against mediocre and bad teams, including nine of those with teams in front of them in the WC race.  And if you look at the teams in front of the Mets, they all have really tough schedules during this time.  You would also hope that by August 21st, most of the injured souls will be back.  That’s a huge question mark considering there hasn’t been much progress but they say everyone will be healthy by mid-August.  We shall see.

So my point is if the Mets go 13-7 over these next 20 games, and there’s no reason they can’t, they should position themselves to be about 3-4 games out of the Wild Card race by August 21st when hopefully everyone is healthy.  That is their only chance to make the postseason.  They have to play great and get their guys back.  Then if they’re within striking distance by mid-August with a full arsenal, they just might pull off the miracle.

RESPONSE to Phil’s comment: Phil, thanks for commenting in.  I definitely agree that I take every loss and win too seriously, but I should probably make something clear.  I still think this team is done despite the five-game winning streak.  I think it was more of a fluke than anything else.  But the reason for today’s post was saying that if they’re going to make a run, the next three weeks are the time to do it.  I don’t think they will though.  I just don’t think this team is good enough and after today’s deadline and bad news on Jose Reyes, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.  But, the opportunity is there.  That’s for sure.