Offseason so far

Al, thanks for encouraging me to make a post and do a show.  It’s good to know I’m wanted.  I’m not sure exactly when a show will happen, but I’m promising something within the next few weeks.  I hope everyone is doing well and is excited for 2010.  Here are just some of my thoughts on the Mets’ offseason so far.

It’s been relatively slow up until this week, but over the last seven days the Mets added Jason Bay and Kelvim Escobar.  While I’m not crazy about Bay, I do think it was a needed move.  I would have much preferred Matt Holliday, but we’ll have to see what he winds up getting.  If it’s 8 years, 120 million as has been reported, then the Mets were right for signing Bay to a 4-year, 66 million dollar deal.  I think 4 years for a guy of Bay’s caliber is worth it.  The question is what are the terms of the vesting option.  If it’s averaging 140 games a year, then I really like this deal.  I would think if Bay is playing in that many games over the next four seasons, he will be well worth the 66 million.

The Mets absolutely needed a bat for the middle of the order.  A lot of skeptics were writing the Mets should have split the dollars over three or four players on one-year deals, but I don’t know about that.  It’s nice to have options, but it’s unlikely any of those guys was going to fill the massive power void.  Also, besides catcher and another starter, what do the Mets really need?  I think they can still afford to spend money on those two spots.

Bay himself does a lot of things well.  He pretty much hits 30 homers, drives in 100 and scores 100 runs every season.  And he’s done that in the pressure-packed Boston market in the pitching-rich AL East, so the New York media shouldn’t bother him and there’s no reason he can’t mash the NL East pitchers.  He also produced for the Pirates when he was pretty much the only guy in that lineup.  He’s going to have a much better lineup around him in New York.  If everyone stays healthy, he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs since Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran will be hitting in front of him.  And while he might not hit 30+ homers, he’s a righty pull hitter so if anyone is going to do that in Citi Field, it’s him.

I also think he’s faster than most people believe and he’s not terrible defensively from what I’ve seen.  Plus as Ted pointed out yesterday on his site, the Mets have Carlos Beltran in center.  So you can mask his defense a little bit.  All in all, a good deal that had to be made.  Holliday was the only other real option.  You aren’t going to gut out your finally stable farm system when you can get Jason Bay as a free agent.

I really like the Escobar signing.  These are exactly the types of moves the Mets should be making.  Low-risk, high-reward moves.  Escobar comes relatively cheap at 1.25 million.  That’s almost half of what Alex Cora is making.  He used to be very, very good.  If he can get back to 85% of that, he’s a lights-out 8th-inning guy.  Apparently he looked pretty good in his tryout session.  So the Mets could have a steal if he can stay healthy.

I also liked the Ryota Igarashi move.  I’d be lying if I said I knew anything about him besides what I’ve read on the internet.  But 2 years, 3 mill for a guy that put up his numbers in Japan.  I like that a lot.  Keep in mind the Japanese relievers who throw pretty hard have been very successful in the Major Leagues.  And none of those guys had huge dollars coming their way.  Takashi Saito, Akinori Otsuka and Hideki Okajima have all been awesome over the past few years.  And look how dominant they’ve been in their first year especially.  I like the odds that Igarashi can do the same.

So if one of the Escobar/Igarashi combo work out, then the Mets have themselves a stud reliever for a combined cost of 3 million dollars.  You can’t argue that.  And the bullpen would be pretty solid if that’s the case.  Between K-Rod, one of these guys and Pedro Feliciano, that’s a nice 7-8-9 combination.  If they both work out, then you’re looking at one of the better bullpens in baseball.

I did not like the Alex Cora move just like everyone else didn’t like it.  Way too much money for a guy who’s replacement level.  You could have spent the league minimum and gotten the same production.  The bright side is that’s probably the worst move the Mets have made this offseason.  If that remains the case, then I’m OK with that.

What’s on tap you ask?  Well Bengie Molina looks like he could be next.  I totally understand why everyone is up in arms over this potential move.  Two years, 13.5 million for Molina is absurd, but to say he isn’t a massive upgrade from Schneider and Santos is absurd as well.  Molina is much, much better than both of those guys.  I know when you combine both of their numbers from last year, it isn’t a whole lot different from Bengie, but that’s because Santos got hot when he first came up.

Molina has averaged 18 homers and 85 RBI the past three years with the Giants.  He had zero protection in that lineup.  I’m serious.  Look at the Giants offense the last few seasons.  Pablo Sandoval was their only other good hitter and last year was his first full year.  You can do a whole lot worse with your catcher and #8 hitter than Bengie Molina.  They’d definitely be overpaying him, but he’s still better than anyone else out there.

Let’s see they got Molina and found a way to get rid of Luis Castillo and signed Orlando Hudson.  Or even if they keep Castillo.  The lineup is looking like 1. Reyes, 2. Castillo, 3. Beltran, 4. Bay, 5. Wright, 6. Murphy, 7. Franceour, 8. Molina.  You might move Murphy to second and switch Beltran and Wright to balance the order a little, but you get the point.  It’s a pretty solid lineup all of a sudden.  You have five guys who can easily hit 20 homers and Reyes and Murphy could get you 15.

The one missing ingredient is that pitcher who can throw behind Johan Santana.  I don’t get why the Mets didn’t jump on Jason Marquis for the 2-year, 15 million dollar deal he got from the Nationals.  He’s far from great, but he’s only had one bad season since 2004.  The Mets like Joel Pineiro and he was excellent last year.  But he might have been a Dave Duncan prodigy who could be one and done.  The one bright spot on why he was so good was that he never walked anyone.  Twenty-seven walks in 214 IP is ridiculous.  So if all Duncan said was throw strikes, then there’s no reason he couldn’t do the same for the Mets in Citi Field.

If I could pick one guy among the group that’s available, I’d go for Ben Sheets.  He’d take a one-year deal and he has by far the highest ceiling of anyone available.  He’s still only 31, and when he’s healthy, he’s a top 10 pitcher in the league.  Look at his numbers.  He’s awesome.  The problem is he’s never healthy.  His 31 starts in 2008 were the most he had since 2004.  Yikes.  He did still average 24 starts in those four seasons though.  I’ll take 24 starts from Ben Sheets and 10 from Fernando Nieve/Nelson Figueora over 34 starts from Joel Pineiro.  That’s how good Sheets is.

On that same note, I’d look at Erik Bedard if Sheets and Pineiro are too much money.  He’s been injured for half of the past two seasons, but he was lights out in 2006 and 2007.  If you’ll recall, I wanted him in the 2007 offseason before he got traded to the Mariners.

And the only other guy I’d even consider is Carlos Zambrano.  No one knows how available he is, but man if you could get him and pair him with Johan Santana, then you’re finally looking at a title contender again.  He’s one of those guys that you think would shine with the Mets.  He’s firey and the fans love that here.  He’s also been consistently one of the best pitchers in the NL the past seven seasons.  So if you could get him for Castillo, Pelfrey and Pagan, then I think that’s a no-brainer.

I have to give the Mets credit for keeping their farm system in tact.  Everyone said the Mets have a lot of talent in the low levels, so when you keep all of those guys and they’re a year older, you have to like where the system will be in 2010.  They also get the 7th pick of the draft so there’s another top prospect heading their way.

It will be interesting to see what the Mets do over the next few weeks.  If they do sign Molina, I think they’re one starter away from being a playoff team again.  Obviously pretty much all of this is resting on the hope that the injuries of 2009 don’t linger into 2010.  Feel free to shoot me your questions and comments.  Until then, Happy New Year everyone!